When optimism is high, the economy grows faster. [Courtesy] Elections, world over, are fought and won on key emotions – hope or fear. Narc’s 2002 campaign “yote yawezekana” produced the most hopeful nation on earth in 2003, according to a Gallup poll. Our favourite campaign tune was “unbwogable” Gidi Gidi Maji Maji duo, because it invoked a sense that we were unstoppable. So euphoric were we that citizens arrested errant traffic police officers and not the other way around!
In contrast, the 2012 TNA/URP campaign sold fear – of kimundu and the ICC. Earlier, the Kanu campaigns of the 90s created fear by not just threatening but actually visiting bodily harm on us, by way of tribal clashes and other forms of political violence! PNU’s emotionally neutral “kazi iendele” 2007 campaign struggled to gain traction, nearly costing Kibaki a second term.
Obama’s 2008 “yes we can” struck a deep emotional reaction based on hope of a better future for all, regardless of background or circumstance. Across the globe, people wept when he triumphed.
Meanwhile, Trump’s “make American great again” was based on the fear of job losses, stagnation of living standards, and loss of status as a global economic power house. It created very angry white voters. They applauded him when he was aggressive against women, blacks and immigrants. READ MORE
What has all this got to do with the economy and urgent need for a nationalist coalition going into 2022? As it turns out, a great deal. The economy runs on confidence. When optimism is high, the economy grows faster. When doom and gloom prevail, the economy is sluggish or worse, we get a recession. Let us examine the reasons briefly.
When citizens are very hopeful about the future – that is, when they are optimistic, it positively influences their consumption behaviour. They are more likely to build or buy a house, take a mortgage, go on holiday, buy a car and so on. Personal credit grows. Conversely, when we are fearful or pessimistic about the future, we adopt a wait and see attitude. Even our favourite investment – buying plots in Nanyuki, Rumuruti, Mlolongo or Kajiado – is put on hold.
When businesses are confident about the future, they tend to increase the level of inventory and stocks, because they expect to sell. They are also more likely to make long term investments in plant and equipment. Conversely, when they are pessimistic, […]